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A |     近期,在新加坡裕廊西工作的一位啤酒小妹火了! 她在工作时候的照片被用餐的客户分享在社交媒体上,引发大量网友的关注。    

Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。因为年轻皮白貌美,她被熟客们称为“啤酒西施”,不少酒客会定期约上朋友一起来她这里买酒喝。

B | 由于她待人礼貌、脸上总挂着甜美的笑容,不少人都会为了一睹她真人的风姿而特地前来。图源:早报这名啤酒女叫唐欣仪,今年27岁,已经从事啤酒促销员工作2年;之前她在马来西亚工作,8个月前刚刚来到新加坡打工,如今的工作地点是裕廊西1道491座咖啡店。

C | 走红后的唐欣仪表示,自己暂时不会考虑转做网红,因为对着镜头会感觉很拘谨。但她平时会经营自己的小红书和IG,发发自己的工作和日常。如今唐欣仪的小红书账号已经拥有一万多粉丝,不少人在她发布的帖子下面盛赞她的美貌和可爱。咖啡店的摊主对唐欣仪的工作态度很认同,整个咖啡店只有一名啤酒推销员,平时她的工作很勤奋也很周到,走红后应该也会引来不少食客和酒客慕名前来,也会一定程度提升咖啡店的销量。这看起来本该是一条非常正能量的新闻,大马女孩来新加坡打工,年轻美貌又勤奋,凭借自己的努力获得老板和客户的一致好评。图源:facebook @SG Warehouse Sale & Events但,评论区却彻底炸开了锅!两极分化吵得不可开交!不少网友认为美貌无罪,多看美人对心情好身体也会好。而且一个姑娘从马来西亚来到新加坡打工赚钱,职业不分贵贱,非常值得尊重。但另一部分的网友则非常排斥啤酒妹的职业:“等着看吧,很快就要为了啤酒妹打起来了”还有一部分则揶揄起了这些酒客买醉的真正意图:有关这则新闻下的评论之纷杂,简直可以勾勒出一幅——新加坡咖啡店酒生活的纪实真相。而关键词莫过:“啤酒妹”、“咖啡店”、“酒客老uncle”。新加坡独特的咖啡店酒生活 啤酒妹是什么职业?啤酒妹其实正式的称呼是啤酒推销员,很多国家都会有。为了增加销量,不同品牌的啤酒会在售酒地点设置啤酒促销员,向客户主动推销酒水。在新加坡啤酒妹的收入中,虽然有固定工资制的,但大部分的啤酒妹收入仍然是业绩奖金+小费,而这部分才是她们的收入重头。虽然年轻貌美的女孩更容易在这份工作中脱颖而出,但四十岁以上的女性也可以凭着自己的勤快和情商干好这份工作。示意图啤酒妹每天做些什么?在新加坡,咖啡店中的啤酒推销员的工作其实和普通的服务员并没有太大的差异:为客户拿酒、开酒、倒酒、加冰,看到客户来的时候整理桌子、帮忙点餐;冰柜里存货不多的时候,也需要帮忙上货等……啤酒女的经常从傍晚六点多开始工作到晚间,在这段时间内脚不沾地的服务络绎不绝的酒客。由于咖啡店中既提供食物也提供酒水,酒客食客不分开,因此为了让自己的客户能能第一时间来店就喝上酒而不是被其他食客占了位置,她们还会印刷自己的名片分发,方便客户联系自己帮忙提前定位。但这一行为有时候也会引发酒客和食客之间的矛盾,2021年就有一名啤酒女郎用啤酒桶帮助酒客“占位”,导致其他食客在咖啡店找不到位置,一名食客愤然投诉! 图源:联合早报 维护客户也是啤酒女郎很重要的工作内容,当月底业绩看着无法完成的时候,啤酒妹们还会给自己的熟客打电话,请她们来支持自己帮助完成业绩。

D | 和客人关系维护得越好,销售业绩越容易完成;而服务态度越好,让客户满意,她们也就越容易拿到丰厚的小费。为了让熟客开心,啤酒妹的嘴巴往往都非常甜,对于支持自己业绩的熟人会直接称呼“爹地”“干妈”,哄得对方心花怒放。对于其他普通的客户,也会称呼“帅哥”“美女”。有时候为了让对方开心,倒酒之后还会开会坐下来陪客户喝两杯酒,再聊聊天。图源:星洲日报新加坡啤酒女的困扰新加坡毕竟是法治社会,这些啤酒女在工作的时候并不会遇到严重的非礼,但言语上的骚扰和咸猪手却的确时常发生。有时候客户会对他们说“我包你”,趁着倒酒的时候摸摸啤酒女的手。有些啤酒女或许会和客户虚与委蛇来增加自己的销售业绩,2022年的疫情期间,为了能招揽更多生意,义顺咖啡店的一名啤酒女不带口罩揽客,还非常嘴甜地喊男性顾客“男朋友”,甚至主动摸对方地耳朵、甚至搓背等暧昧地动作,来卖力推销酒水。

E | 但不少将认真对待这份职业的人,却宁愿认真踏实用自己的勤奋赚取工资,一旦遇到骚扰事件,会选择投诉、大声斥责、避让,来捍卫自己的职业尊严。酒客老uncle在“啤酒西施”的新闻之下,不少人都担心啤酒妹会遭遇新加坡老uncle的咸猪手。新加坡老安哥的确有“好色”“寂寞”等不太佳的名声,而这些啤酒妹服务的咖啡店,又的确是老安哥们最爱聚集的地点。新加坡的咖啡店指的可不是西式咖啡馆,它们通常就开在组屋楼下,更像是小型一点的小贩中心,售卖菜饭、咖啡、饮料等餐食。

F | 白天的时候,这些咖啡馆更像是价格稍贵一点的小贩中心或食阁,而到了晚上,这里则更像是便宜的夜店。只是新加坡年轻人大多会选择酒吧等更高档的地方消费,而组屋周边的中老年人就会选择在这里聚餐碰头,点上一些酒水,和老朋友在这里消磨时间。啤酒妹在新加坡的历史很早以前新加坡的咖啡店中是没有啤酒妹的,毕竟主要是提供给客工和周边消费能力不高的中老年人,自给自足更符合薄利多销的原则,店内由大雪柜,客户自己动手拿取就行。

G | 图源:新加坡国家档案馆但慢慢的从20世纪中期开始,咖啡店为了争夺客户增加效率开始引入了啤酒推销员。刚开始的时候,其实并不是“啤酒妹”,而是“啤酒姨”,是咖啡店店主的亲眷担任,但之后发现多出一分钱聘请年轻貌美的姑娘来承担这份工作,更有利于销售提升,之后啤酒妹才在新加坡广泛出现。 图源:新明日报咖啡厅的啤酒妹面对的客户,是附近组屋的居民和客工,只要穿着清凉一些,再嘴巴甜一些,就会很容易引来目标客户的追捧,从而大大提升销售额。因此难怪一部分客户在看到美丽啤酒妹的时候,会担忧本地老uncle的咸猪手,的确有部分酒客醉翁之意不在酒。啤酒妹也有自己的防狼培训 啤酒妹是一份正经的销售职业,只是酒醉的酒客的确很容易出现上头的情况而场面难以控制。因此十年前开始,为了帮助啤酒推销员降低在工作时候遭非礼的几率,不少酒厂会专门针对自己的啤酒推销员进行相关的工作培训。

H | 比如——啤酒女需要食客保持警惕,特别是尽量和喝醉的酒客保持距离,以降低被非礼的风险。当看到有人醉倒,啤酒女最好不要搭理,而是请咖啡店业者去处理。啤酒女郎之间也会互相传授经验,甚至有些熟客酒客也会告诉她们如何处理这样的突发事件——大声斥责咸猪手的老酒客!警告对方再犯就要报警!2017年的时候一名来自白俄罗斯的前大学研究员就因为非礼啤酒女,摸了对方的屁股而被判罚款3000新币。五花八门的啤酒女事件 越南啤酒妹“清凉”上阵2020年越南啤酒妹Yumi在网络走红,她自述从小就喜欢穿性感的服装,因此在工作的时候也常常不穿内衣,紧身装束“真空上阵”。

I | 她当时在facebook招人的信息也很吸引眼球:“如果是像我一样不喜欢穿内衣的,就会加分。”虽然她摊位售卖的酒水价格比普通咖啡店的贵,但她的摊位当时仍然引来了大量男性顾客光顾,旁的摊位都收业冷清了,她经营的饮料摊仍然座无虚席。抢不到好座位的客户甚至只能坐在后方或较远处一睹越南清凉啤酒妹的芳容。不过2021年在开业一年之后,越南啤酒妹就选择了结业转而当网红,受访时坦言——卖啤酒太累,长时间的工作让她疲惫。

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